New modelling reveals the significant health and economic benefits of Viet Nam’s recent tobacco tax reforms.
WHO’s tax simulation model, TaXSim, projects that reforms agreed in June 2025 will help 2.1 million people in Viet Nam quit or avoid smoking by 2031; prevent 700,000 premature deaths over the coming decades; generate VND 24,000 billion (US$ 910 million) in additional annual Government revenue by 2031; and reduce access to low-cost cigarette brands, especially among youth.
Health taxes were the special focus of a high-level World Health Organization (WHO) event held alongside the United Nations General Assembly’s Fourth High-level Meeting on Noncommunicable Diseases (NCDs) in New York this week.
WHO Representative Dr Angela Pratt said, “Raising taxes on harmful tobacco to make them less affordable is one of the most effective public health interventions, and one of the core measures that WHO recommends to tackle the tobacco epidemic.
“WHO is delighted that the Government took such strong action in 2025. Our new modelling reveals how beneficial these tobacco tax reforms will be for people’s health and lives, and for boosting the economy.”
Health and economic costs of tobacco
Tobacco use is a major public health and economic challenge in Viet Nam. It contributes to more than 20 types of noncommunicable diseases —including cancer, cardiovascular disease, respiratory illness, and type 2 diabetes—and causes around 100,000 deaths annually. Secondhand smoke further harms non-smokers, especially children, increasing risks of asthma, infections, and sudden infant death syndrome.
With over 15 million smokers, tobacco-related economic losses are estimated at VND 108,000 billion annually, equivalent to 1.1% of GDP. High smoking rates among men reduce workforce productivity and exacerbate social inequities, posing a barrier to Viet Nam’s ambition to become a high-income country by 2045.
Despite these impacts, tobacco taxes in Viet Nam have historically been among the lowest in ASEAN. In 2022, taxes accounted for just 36% of the retail price, well below the global average of 62%, the middle-income country average of 59%, and the WHO-recommended level of at least 75%.
In the past, reform efforts have faced significant opposition from the tobacco industry, which deployed misleading claims about smuggling, revenue loss, and harm to tobacco farming to delay progress.
Leadership and collaboration support reforms
In June, Viet Nam’s National Assembly adopted significant reforms to the tobacco tax system: a new specific excise tax to complement the existing ad valorem tax (based on product value), along with scheduled annual tax increases from 2027 to 2031. These reforms are designed not only to raise tobacco taxes, but also to ensure the effectiveness of higher taxes is sustained over time.
“Several key drivers underpinned the success of this initiative,” said Dr Pratt.
“They include strong leadership from the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Health, long-term collaboration with other Government agencies, a unified network of public health partners, robust and locally relevant evidence, strategic media advocacy and effective countering of industry interference. Together, these elements created a powerful foundation for sustainable policy change.”
Reforms were led by key Government agencies—including the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Health’s Department of Legislation, the Viet Nam Tobacco Control Fund and the Health Strategy and Policy Institute — with the support of partners such as WHO, Bloomberg Philanthropies, Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids (CTFK), Vital Strategies and HealthBridge Viet Nam.
Three pillars of change
Central to the effort to drive change was evidence-based policy and technical advice, and advocacy.
Before the law change, WHO’s TaXSim model was customized using national data to project the health and economic impact of proposed tobacco tax increases. The findings were strategically disseminated through policy briefs, letters to policymakers, and scientific journal articles, ensuring that evidence-based information and messaging remained consistent, credible, and compelling across all stakeholder groups.
Alongside advocacy, capacity building played a critical role. A dedicated technical working group provided training for Government officials, facilitated the transfer of the TaXSim model to national ownership, and organized workshops that engaged members of the National Assembly, Ministry representatives and provincial leaders. These efforts helped build understanding and support for the reforms at multiple levels of Government.
Public and media engagement further amplified the impact. Journalist workshops and a nationwide mass media campaign were instrumental in generating public and policymaker support. The campaign featured opinion pieces, interviews, and targeted social media outreach—particularly aimed at youth and women—to broaden the reach of key messages and strengthen the case for reform. This included addressing the ongoing, misleading information from the tobacco industry.
Dr Pratt reaffirmed WHO’s commitment to supporting the Government in implementing the reforms and advancing future tobacco control initiatives.
“The Government’s tobacco tax reforms will safeguard the health of current and future generations. By prioritizing prevention, these reforms will reduce suffering and save lives—leaving a lasting legacy in line with Resolution 72’s commitment to protecting Viet Nam’s greatest asset: the health of its people.”